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Beyond the Fire: The Science of Bushfire Risk Modelling in Australia

Insurance BrokingReinsurance

Australia's bushfire landscape is as dynamic as it is consequential. Under many (often typical) conditions, embers can travel several kilometres from their sources, crossing postcode boundaries, jumping firebreaks, and landing on the roofs of structures considered "low risk" in portfolios...

calendar icon17 Nov 2025

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Beyond the Fire: The Science of Bushfire Risk Modelling in Australia

Australia’s bushfire landscape is as dynamic as it is consequential.

Under many (often typical) conditions, embers can travel several kilometres from their sources, crossing postcode boundaries, jumping firebreaks, and landing on the roofs of structures considered “low risk” in portfolios built on “proximity-to-bushland” logic.

This creates an important challenge for insurers and reinsurers, as risk cannot be assessed solely by asking, “How close is this property to the bush?”

Rather, the more encompassing questions include:

  • How do climate patterns impact ignitions?
  • How far can embers travel under both normal and extreme wind?
  • How does urban density amplify or dampen fire spread?
  • When might suppression capability collapse?
  • How do building codes affect vulnerability at scale?

One of the latest bushfire models was developed in collaboration with bushfire scientists and engineers, using Australian government data.

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