• Swiss Re Report suggests potential of up to 3% for the US by 2033 and 2.5% in the UK, the longest period of elevated peacetime excess mortality in the US
• Key driver of excess mortality is the lingering impact of COVID-19; both as a direct cause of death, and as a contributor to cardiovascular mortality
• Reducing the impact of COVID-19 on elderly and vulnerable populations will be key to excess mortality returning to zero

Four years after the peak of the COVID-19 pandemic, many countries are still reporting elevated all-cause excess mortality compared with pre-pandemic levels.

Swiss Re Institute’s report The future of excess mortality after COVID-19, argues that the ongoing impact of the disease must be curtailed to prevent excess mortality rates 3% higher than pre-pandemic levels in the general US population and 2.5% in the UK, by 2033.

Excess mortality is a measure of the number of deaths above an expected level in a given population. Typically, all-cause excess mortality should be around zero, as the major causes of death remain relatively stable over the long-term baseline assumption.

In Australia, Actuary Institute figures show the excess mortality rate has dropped substantially since 2023, however, it remains significantly higher than the 1-2% excess observed in years of high flu deaths prior to the pandemic.  

Julien Descombes, Swiss Re Chief Underwriting Officer Life & Health Reinsurance says COVID-19 and excess mortality are much lower than seen during the peak of the pandemic.

Premium

You need to login to access this

Login

What are CIP Points? About ANZIIF Membership